Estimation Model for Armed Vehicle Evacuation Time Under Air Raid Scenarios

To assess the rapid evacuation of armed vehicles, including tanks and armored vehicles, under airstrike threats, this study proposes an evacuation time estimation (ETE) model based on macroscopic traffic flow theory. The model comprehensively considers airstrike threats, road network characteristics, vehicle performance, and driver behavior to establish an ETE model consistent with evacuation behavior during airstrikes. Emergency commanders can utilize this model to calculate ETE and conduct sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of parameter variations on evacuation time. By examining the influence of reasonable parameter changes, the model can be adapted to different tactical requirements and compute the proportion of evacuated vehicles over time. Firstly, based on operational deployment and battlefield conditions, a mathematical model for the number of evacuating armed vehicles is constructed to achieve quantitative calculation of evacuation scale. Secondly, utilizing historical data and battlefield environments, probabilistic and statistical methods are employed to estimate the travel distribution of armed vehicles over different time periods, enabling dynamic simulation of departure times. Finally, by integrating the number of evacuating vehicles and travel distribution, traffic flow theory is applied to estimate road traffic volume at different time intervals, achieving real-time assessment of road network loads and ultimately calculating the proportion of evacuated vehicles and the final evacuation time. Simulation experimental results are consistent with actual scenarios, validating the effectiveness of the proposed model.