Energy supply resilience under low-carbon transition: Long-term multi-national assessment

The low-carbon transition has brought about new supply uncertainties, making preventing every possible disruption challenging. Since disruptions have become inevitable and unpredictable, enhancing the supply resilience to improve coping capacity after disruptions becomes increasingly critical. This study aimed to assess the global energy supply security from a resilience perspective. First, a diversified assessment framework of energy supply resilience was developed. Within this framework, 30 indicators were included. In addition to disruption threat indicators, it includes response resilience indicators that characterize the coping capacity to disruption. Using this indicator system, the Energy Supply Resilience Index (ESRI) was constructed as a proxy index of energy supply security in the low-carbon transition. An empirical evaluation of 80 countries from 2000 to 2019 followed. The study shows (1) The trends of energy supply resilience indicate a regional difference. Europe, the Americas, and Asia have notably improved, while Africa has experienced a decline. (2) Import security risks consistently are the core issue for energy supply security. The importance of response resilience factors is improving and may become central to future national competition in energy security. (3) In the diversified framework, 75 % of countries have changed their security grades, significantly shifting the global energy supply security landscape. Countries like France, Singapore, and Iceland demonstrate strong renewable energy development, enhancing their security during the low-carbon transition. In contrast, India, Poland, and nearly 90 % of African nations face serious challenges, risking energy poverty. Finally, policymakers should address weaknesses, and this study provides recommendations based on typical country characteristics.