Economic affordability of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme based on uncertainty

The uncertainty in research cycle was considered to be an important influence on aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme evaluation (ACSE). Through the classification of uncertainties during the aircraft design process and analysis of their corresponding treatment methods, the probability multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method was made up, which was based on interval number analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the robust design (RD). It could be used to deal with the evaluation of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme, when the process exists a vast amount of uncertainty. Meanwhile, the result of the assessment was more scientific than traditional method. Taking account of new technology and life cycle cost fluctuation impact on design options, the above methods were utilized to analyze the economic affordability of aircraft conceptual/preliminary scheme (EAACS). And then, the structural model of EAACS was established. The result of analysis verifies the validity of the above methods.