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Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?

  • Yiye Liu
  • , Liyan Han
  • , You Wu*
  • , Libo Yin
  • *Corresponding author for this work
  • Beihang University
  • Beijing Technology and Business University
  • Central University of Finance and Economics

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper provides a novel investigation into how currency excess returns react to terrorist attacks. We construct a terrorism risk factor and demonstrate that it significantly matters to excess returns of both carry trade and individual currencies. Furthermore, we form a currency portfolio by simply buying terrorism-sensitive currencies and selling less terrorism-sensitive currencies, which yields economically positive and statistically significant returns. It has shown that this newly proposed terrorism risk factor could provide a marginal improvement for exchange rate pricing facing terrorist attacks.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103087
JournalFinance Research Letters
Volume49
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2022

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
    SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

  • Carry trade
  • Excess returns
  • FX markets
  • Terrorist attacks

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