Decreasing energy-related carbon inequality in inter-provincial trade: Evidence from carbon emissions embodied in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas

Global trade reconfigures energy and carbon flows through value chains. As the world's largest trading economy, China exhibits complex energy-carbon linkages, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and its surrounding regions - a nexus of interprovincial energy transfers and carbon-intensive production. This study couples the IMED|CGE model with environmentally extended input-output analysis (EIOA) and the Theil Index to quantify how future carbon- and pollutant-reduction policies will ripple energy use, and economic outputs in BTH and adjacent provinces, as well as embodied carbon emissions through trade networks. Results show that meeting pollution-abatement goals would demand cuts of 68.8% in oil use and 35.2% in electricity consumption, while reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 hinges on slashing coal use by 66.1%. Regionally, Inner Mongolia undergoes the most dramatic shifts with energy consumption falling by 61.7–63.8%, industrial value-added contracting by 35.5–38.9%, and carbon emissions plunging by 71.7–79.9% in 2060. Crucially, energy-intensive and traditional manufacturing provinces emerge as net importers of embodied carbon through trade, and policy implementation narrows the inequality between embodied emissions and economic development levels. By explicitly addressing energy transition and economic development challenges together with tracing how trade flows redistribute carbon burdens among different types of provinces, our research offers new insights for designing equitable, trade-sensitive pathways toward carbon mitigation and pollution alleviation.