Skip to main navigation Skip to search Skip to main content

Can online emotions predict the stock market in China?

  • Beihang University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Whether the online social media,like Twitter or its variant Weibo,can be a convincing proxy to predict the stock market has been debated for years,especially for China. However,as the traditional theory in behavioral finance states,the individual emotions can influence decision-makings of investors,so it is reasonable to further explore this controversial topic from the perspective of online emotions,which is richly carried by massive tweets in social media. Surprisingly,through thorough study on over 10 million stock-relevant tweets fromWeibo,both correlation analysis and causality test demonstrate that five attributes of the stock market in China can be competently predicted by various online emotions,like disgust,joy,sadness and fear. Specifically,the presented model significantly outperforms the baseline solutions on predicting five attributes of the stock market under the K-means discretization.We also employ this model in the scenario of realistic online application and its performance is further testified.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWeb Information Systems Engineering – WISE 2016 - 17th International Conference, Proceedings
EditorsWojciech Cellary, Jianmin Wang, Mohamed F. Mokbel, Hua Wang, Rui Zhou, Yanchun Zhang
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages328-342
Number of pages15
ISBN (Print)9783319487397
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016
Event17th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2016 - Shanghai, China
Duration: 8 Nov 201610 Nov 2016

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume10041 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2016
Country/TerritoryChina
CityShanghai
Period8/11/1610/11/16

Keywords

  • Causality test
  • Sentiment analysis
  • Social media
  • Stock market

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Can online emotions predict the stock market in China?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this