Assessment of technical risk for weapon system development project based on GERT simulation including multi-branch feedback

In order to avoid over-cost and time delay in the weapon system development, the failure probability and multi-branch feedback of the weapon system were brought into the graphical evaluation review technique (GERT) network. A feedback simulation model based on GERT network including multi-branch was established. Through the statistical analysis of simulation outputs, the quantitative indictors of technical risk both at project and subsystem level were defined respectively, such as the percentage of over-cost and time delay, and the variation coefficient of cost and time. Also, the sensitivity analysis of technical risk factors was also performed. The technical risk of a specific weapon system was analyzed by the simulation model in detail, which proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the simulation model.