Assessment of performance risk for weapon system development based on simulation method

Performance risk is usually defined as the risk that technical performance failed to achieve desired level under the scheduled resource conditions (such as cost and schedule). The failure probability and multi-branch feedback of activities within subsystems is brought in the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) network, and a feedback simulation model is established. The schedule constraints are achieved by setting the simulation clock TNOW. The assessment models of the performance risk probability of both subsystem level and project level are established under the cost and schedule constraints, also the relationship between the distributions of the performance risk probability of both the project level and the subsystem level is studied. The performance risk of a specific weapon system is analyzed, which proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the simulation model.