Assessing the potential of decarbonizing China's building construction by 2060 and synergy with industry sector

Embodied carbon emissions of the building sector constitute the majority of carbon emissions. The selection of a building stock development pathway, construction mode, and synergy between the building construction and industry sectors will greatly influence the future embodied carbon emissions in China's building sector. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the carbon emission related to China's building construction under different path choices, to provide quantitative support for policy makers, helping to realize low-carbon development in China's construction sector. So, we developed the China Building Construction Model to illustrate the relationship between building stock, material stock, and embodied carbon emissions. The results show that controlling the total building stock at a reasonable level, extending the building lifetime by avoiding the buildings' early demolition, and encouraging building retrofitting can significantly reduce the material demand of construction as well as the carbon intensity of the production of building materials. Over 70% of the reduction in carbon emissions can be realized through these measures by 2060. Moreover, low carbon development depends on recycling and increased efficiency in producing building materials; this way, embodied carbon emissions can be reduced by nearly 50% by 2060.