An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market

Jinsong Huang; Chang Liu

doi:10.1109/ICIII.2010.530

An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market

Jinsong Huang^*
, Chang Liu

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Economics and Management

Beihang University

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

In fact, recent years China may surpass the United States as the world's largest auto market. At a time when Chinese automakers are trying to get more involved in the global industry, it becomes increasingly important to calibrate and forecast the new automobile penetration process successfully in opened and competitive market. In this study, we extends the Exponential model and Weibull- Gamma model to Exponential -Gamma with 'never triers' model (EG with NT) and Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model (WG with NT) by considering 'never triers' and difference between individuals. An empirical analysis was carried out subsequently to compare the accuracy of calibrating and forecasting ability between EG with NT model, WG with NT model and BASS model. Unlike some previous ones, it is concluded that when dealing with automobile trail data in Chinese market, WG with NT model provide significantly better calibrates and forecasts than other two models; EG with NT model is more accurate in forecasting than Bass model; Bass model is more accurate in calibrating than EG with NT model.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010
Pages	217-221
Number of pages	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIII.2010.530
State	Published - 2010
Event	3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010 - Kunming, China Duration: 26 Nov 2010 → 28 Nov 2010

Publication series

Name	Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010
Volume	4

Conference

Conference	3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010
Country/Territory	China
City	Kunming
Period	26/11/10 → 28/11/10

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

Keywords

Calibrating and forecasting
Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model
New product penetration
Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model

Access to Document

10.1109/ICIII.2010.530

Cite this

Huang, J., & Liu, C. (2010). An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market. In Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010 (pp. 217-221). Article 5694885 (Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010; Vol. 4). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIII.2010.530

Huang, Jinsong ; Liu, Chang. / An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market. Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010. 2010. pp. 217-221 (Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010).

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title = "An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market",

abstract = "In fact, recent years China may surpass the United States as the world's largest auto market. At a time when Chinese automakers are trying to get more involved in the global industry, it becomes increasingly important to calibrate and forecast the new automobile penetration process successfully in opened and competitive market. In this study, we extends the Exponential model and Weibull- Gamma model to Exponential -Gamma with 'never triers' model (EG with NT) and Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model (WG with NT) by considering 'never triers' and difference between individuals. An empirical analysis was carried out subsequently to compare the accuracy of calibrating and forecasting ability between EG with NT model, WG with NT model and BASS model. Unlike some previous ones, it is concluded that when dealing with automobile trail data in Chinese market, WG with NT model provide significantly better calibrates and forecasts than other two models; EG with NT model is more accurate in forecasting than Bass model; Bass model is more accurate in calibrating than EG with NT model.",

keywords = "Calibrating and forecasting, Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, New product penetration, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model",

author = "Jinsong Huang and Chang Liu",

year = "2010",

doi = "10.1109/ICIII.2010.530",

language = "英语",

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series = "Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010",

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Huang, J & Liu, C 2010, An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market. in Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010., 5694885, Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010, vol. 4, pp. 217-221, 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010, Kunming, China, 26/11/10. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIII.2010.530

An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market. / Huang, Jinsong; Liu, Chang.
Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010. 2010. p. 217-221 5694885 (Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010; Vol. 4).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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N2 - In fact, recent years China may surpass the United States as the world's largest auto market. At a time when Chinese automakers are trying to get more involved in the global industry, it becomes increasingly important to calibrate and forecast the new automobile penetration process successfully in opened and competitive market. In this study, we extends the Exponential model and Weibull- Gamma model to Exponential -Gamma with 'never triers' model (EG with NT) and Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model (WG with NT) by considering 'never triers' and difference between individuals. An empirical analysis was carried out subsequently to compare the accuracy of calibrating and forecasting ability between EG with NT model, WG with NT model and BASS model. Unlike some previous ones, it is concluded that when dealing with automobile trail data in Chinese market, WG with NT model provide significantly better calibrates and forecasts than other two models; EG with NT model is more accurate in forecasting than Bass model; Bass model is more accurate in calibrating than EG with NT model.

AB - In fact, recent years China may surpass the United States as the world's largest auto market. At a time when Chinese automakers are trying to get more involved in the global industry, it becomes increasingly important to calibrate and forecast the new automobile penetration process successfully in opened and competitive market. In this study, we extends the Exponential model and Weibull- Gamma model to Exponential -Gamma with 'never triers' model (EG with NT) and Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model (WG with NT) by considering 'never triers' and difference between individuals. An empirical analysis was carried out subsequently to compare the accuracy of calibrating and forecasting ability between EG with NT model, WG with NT model and BASS model. Unlike some previous ones, it is concluded that when dealing with automobile trail data in Chinese market, WG with NT model provide significantly better calibrates and forecasts than other two models; EG with NT model is more accurate in forecasting than Bass model; Bass model is more accurate in calibrating than EG with NT model.

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Y2 - 26 November 2010 through 28 November 2010

ER -

Huang J, Liu C. An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market. In Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010. 2010. p. 217-221. 5694885. (Proceedings - 3rd International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, ICIII 2010). doi: 10.1109/ICIII.2010.530

An empirical comparison of Exponential-Gamma with 'never triers' model, Weibull-Gamma with 'never triers' model and bass model for new automobiles trial calibration and forecasting in Chinese market

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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