A calibrated weakest-link model for probabilistic assessment of LCF life considering notch size effects

This study proposes a calibrated weakest-link model for probabilistic life in low cycle fatigue (LCF) regime considering the geometric size effect and the statistical size effect. Weakest-link model is first extended to LCF regime by using damage parameter, and then calibrated based on crack propagation process. Meanwhile, experiments on standard smooth specimens and central hole plate (CHP) specimens are conducted. To improve model accuracy, parameters in the proposed model are calibrated by using Bayesian inference method. Finally, probabilistic LCF life is predicted for CHP specimens with different scales, which shows good agreement with test data.