水资源风险分析理论及评估方法

Significant meanings of researches on water resources risk are analyzed, and theories and methods of water resources risk are summarized comprehensively. First, definitions of water resources risk are discussed in terms of uncertainty. Second, the forming factors of water resources risk are analyzed from the viewpoint of hazard and system, and definitions and models of threat and vulnerability are summarized. Third, theory models of water resources risk are summarized, such as some traditional models, integral models and the input-output model. Fourth, models and techniques of water resources vulnerability assess- ment, risk probability prediction and risk loss assessment, advantages and disadvantages of these models are discussed. Finally, the crucial and difficult problems which affect assessment modeling for water resourc- es risk.