多源不确定性对涡轮部件气动与换热性能影响的研究进展

Objective deviations in geometric and aerothermodynamic parameters cause random fluctuations in the actual performance of turbine. This impact is significantly enhanced under extreme conditions such as ul⁃ tra-high loading condition，leading to severe dispersion in actual performance or even“black swan”. Insufficient subjective understanding of design researchers can also interfere with the design and analysis results of turbine. Therefore，reducing the impact of multi-source uncertainties is of great significance for improving the actual per⁃ formance of turbine throughout its lifecycle. This paper provides a detailed introduction to research progress in un⁃ certainty sources and distribution characteristics，uncertainty quantification and uncertainty analysis methods，and the impact of uncertainty on turbine performance. It also discusses how to suppress the impact of uncertain⁃ ties in turbine design，manufacturing，and actual operation，and proposes challenges in turbine uncertainty re⁃ search. Existing studies have shown that extensive and in-depth research has been conducted on uncertainty sources and distribution characteristics，uncertainty quantification and uncertainty analysis methods，and the random fluctuations in turbine performance caused by uncertainties. Among these，identifying uncertainty sourc⁃ es and clarifying their distribution characteristics，and developing quantification and analysis methods，are the foundation for quantifying the impact of uncertainty on turbine performance. These studies provide critical support for developing turbine design methods，manufacturing processes，and operation-maintenance strategies that con⁃ sider the effects of uncertainty. Overall，in terms of research foundations，there is still a need to further supple⁃ ment comprehensive and sufficient measurement data and the physical knowledge behind the complex flow in tur⁃ bine，while continuously develop sparse，high-precision quantification analysis methods. Furthermore，precisely quantify the significant impact of uncertainties on turbine performance under extreme conditions such as ultrahigh load，and deeply investigate the coupled interaction mechanisms between the effects of uncertainty and the nonlinear changes in flow states. Based on these foundations，comprehensive development of robust design meth⁃ ods，manufacturing processes，and operation-maintenance strategies that account for uncertainties can effective⁃ ly enhance the actual performance of turbine throughout its entire lifecycle.