基于概率测度的确信可靠性建模与分析方法

The belief reliability theory based on the principle of reliability science which considers the performance parameters and uncertainties of products during the product design process achieve the reliability forward design and quantitative design. In order to transform the belief reliability theory into a practical and feasible reliability design process, this paper proposes a belief reliability modelling and analysis method based on probability measure. Research determines key performance parameters and thresholds through researching functional performance margin analysis, establishes product performance equations, margin equations and degradation equations through theoretical analysis, simulation modeling, and experimental modeling, quantifies the uncertainty of parameters, develop belief reliability analysis and calculate reliability quantitative indicators. This paper provides innovative theoretical exploration and engineering practice for the reliability design workflow. In order to further illustrate the application process of the method, a certain type of electrical connector is taken as a case study and the optimization direction of electrial connector reiiabitity is put forward quantitatively.