地月转移火箭上面级的轨道演化分析和主动 处置策略

After launch vehicles deliver probes into the trans-lunar orbit，abandoned objects such as rocket upper stages continue to travel along the transfer orbit. Their dynamic orbital evolution cannot be accurately predicted under the action of the Sun-Earth-Moon multi-body gravity，which poses a threat to the safety of the cislunar space environment and necessitates an in-depth study on active disposal strategies. To address this issue，an active disposal method for the trans-lunar orbit with deorbit impulse application is proposed，the orbital evolution characteristics after disposal are analyzed， and the disposal effectiveness is evaluated. For the scenarios of direct transfer and external transfer in the restricted four-body problem model，the orbital evolution properties after the disposal impulse is applied are revealed，which are mainly classified into three categories：short-term return to the cislunar space（within 5 years），return after long-term evolution （5～50 years），and long-term avoidance of the cislunar space（no return within 50 years）. The results show that the disposed direct transfer orbit has a relatively high probability of short-term return to the cislunar space under specific solar phases；the external transfer orbit exhibits stronger evolutionary sensitivity，and the orbital evolution is more regular when the disposal impulse is applied at the lunar gravity assist moment than at the lunar orbit insertion moment，which should be prioritized. In addition，the long-term orbital evolution of the upper stage after entering the heliocentric space is closely related to the resonant orbits of the Sun-Earth system，and the time of its reentry into the cislunar space is determined by the resonance ratio.