加速退化模型及外推结果准确度的定量验证方法

The accelerated degradation test improves the efficiency of reliability assessment by sacrificing some assessment accuracy, and there are commonly deviations between extrapolated reliability results and true values. Thus, it is necessary to validate the accuracy of the accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results. The technical flow for validating the accelerated degradation model and extrapolated results are designed according to the steps of reliability modeling, and a validation technology framework is constructed with the Wiener-Arrhenius accelerated degradation model. The model validation method based on hypothesis test is adopted. The application reasonability of the Wiener degradation model, accelerated degradation model and extrapolated reliability model is validated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests. A practical method for validating extrapolated results based on the area ratio is proposed, which solves the integral problem of complex functions using Monte Carlo simulation. The area ratio is applied to quantitatively describe the accuracy of extrapolated results, and a threshold of area ratio is specified to determine whether to accept the extrapolated results or not. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed technology framework is demonstrated by a case study of the servo circuit of the inertial navigation system. The proposed quantitative validation methods show great applicability in practice.